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skillcheck failures -- argh!

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skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby mongwen » Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:38 am

Three times in the last couple days I have failed one of the condition *-leather-square crafts. Skillcheck required: familiar leathercraft. My leathercraft level: adroit. This should not be happening. Too much randomness. There's a point beyond which you don't screw things up and two levels above the required check should be well past that point.
Tanning: condition small-leather-square
Phase 1: 15 seconds
Held or in Room (Consumed): a small, $leathercolor square of leather.
Phase 2: 20 seconds
Held or in Room (Partially Consumed): 2 of a $woodcolor half-gallon jar of
fish oil.
Phase 3: 40 seconds
Phase 4: 20 seconds
In Room (Reusable): a long and wide fleshing beam.
Phase 5: 20 seconds Familiar Leathercraft skill required.
Phase 6: 10 seconds
Produced: a small, oil-soaked, $leathercolor leather square.
OOC Delay Timer: 60 RL Minutes
OOC Failure Timer: 60 RL Minutes
>
Tanning: condition medium-leather-square
Phase 1: 15 seconds
Held or in Room (Consumed): a medium, $leathercolor square of leather.
Phase 2: 20 seconds
Held or in Room (Partially Consumed): 4 of a $woodcolor half-gallon jar of
fish oil.
Phase 3: 40 seconds
Phase 4: 20 seconds
In Room (Reusable): a long and wide fleshing beam.
Phase 5: 20 seconds Familiar Leathercraft skill required.
Phase 6: 10 seconds
Produced: a medium, oil-soaked, $leathercolor leather square.
OOC Delay Timer: 60 RL Minutes
OOC Failure Timer: 60 RL Minutes
>
Tanning: condition large-leather-square
Phase 1: 15 seconds
Held or in Room (Consumed): a large, $leathercolor square of leather.
Phase 2: 20 seconds
Held or in Room (Partially Consumed): 8 of a $woodcolor half-gallon jar of
fish oil.
Phase 3: 40 seconds
Phase 4: 20 seconds
In Room (Reusable): a long and wide fleshing beam.
Phase 5: 20 seconds Familiar Leathercraft skill required.
Phase 6: 10 seconds
Produced: a large, oil-soaked, $leathercolor leather square.
OOC Delay Timer: 60 RL Minutes
OOC Failure Timer: 60 RL Minutes
>

I'm vaguely aware of the blue-white skillchecks. Can't tell you, I'm blind and there's no alternate method for seeing that yet that I'm aware of. My character's not hungry or thirsty at the moment. Sigh. More practice it is then.
Starting to feel like a broken record having to post about the same issues again and again. Heh. Sorry. It's just frustrating. Still having a bunch of fun, though.
A yellow-eyed, blotchy-fleshed brown uruk slowly slunks over, sneakily swaggering with a sleek step.
mongwen
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Re: skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby Dirgs » Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:39 am

In my experience, the crafts that say 'Familiar' are usually pretty damn difficult to do - and my assumption is that that is a feature rather than a bug ;-) The skill level mentioned in the materials list seems to mean the minimum level where you have a decent chance to succeed, and seems to generally be the level where you branch the subcraft. Now, if you think about skill levels, being 'two levels above beginner' is numerically something like double the skill, whereas being 'two levels above familiar' means only like... 30% better? I believe that's the reason why once you're high level in a skill the progress seems to slow down drastically. You probably won't get to a 100% success chance until you hit Legendary.
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Re: skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby mongwen » Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:31 pm

4...
I understand your point, but adroit is well above familiar, even if we take your 30 percent number. Even with what you're saying two levels should be above the margin of error. I can see still having trouble at the low-mid talented point if it's a high-familiar check, but absolutely not at two levels above. Once you know how to do something, you know how to do it. There are other crafts with similar skillcheck requirements that don't screw up this often. I have now botched two straight and probably half of my last eight attempts. That's what should happen at familiar level when you just branched the craft and are borderline having the skill necessary. Percentages shouldn't matter, if you're well beyond the minimum required level you shouldn't have trouble.
Back to practicing...
A yellow-eyed, blotchy-fleshed brown uruk slowly slunks over, sneakily swaggering with a sleek step.
mongwen
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Re: skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby ThinkTwice » Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:42 pm

This is one of those issues where the game errs on the side of balance or consistency or whatever over fun.

Master First-Aid, Talented Medicine, failed twice to tend a moderate a few days ago. :roll:
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Re: skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby Brian » Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:27 pm

mongwen wrote:4...
I understand your point, but adroit is well above familiar, even if we take your 30 percent number. Even with what you're saying two levels should be above the margin of error. I can see still having trouble at the low-mid talented point if it's a high-familiar check, but absolutely not at two levels above. Once you know how to do something, you know how to do it. There are other crafts with similar skillcheck requirements that don't screw up this often. I have now botched two straight and probably half of my last eight attempts. That's what should happen at familiar level when you just branched the craft and are borderline having the skill necessary. Percentages shouldn't matter, if you're well beyond the minimum required level you shouldn't have trouble.
Back to practicing...


This is a two part thing; first of all botching half of your eight attempts is irrelevant in the world of statistics, as we have to average over as many attempts as possible. You may have just caught some bad luck and it might average out absolutely correctly if you were to perform the craft 10,000 or a 100,000 times. If I flip a coin 8 times and get heads eight times it doesn't mean that the coin is flawed; the probability is still a 1/2 chance of getting a head, it isn't a 1/1 chance because I tried it 8 times and got heads 8 times!

The second part is that once you can't fail a skillcheck you actually no longer improve by doing the craft. So if you have something that seems to have an unusually high skill check and you're failing it that means that you can still advance your skill with that craft which is kind of a good thing, right?
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Re: skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby Meneldor » Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:30 pm

I believe we have a coding issue on what you are being told about some crafts. Those particular crafts are not Familiar level. We are looking into it.

ETA:

Okay, you will always see it as familiar, but these are high level crafts, and just reaching adroit will not be a guarantee of passing.
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Re: skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby ThinkTwice » Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:30 pm

Brian wrote:
This is a two part thing; first of all botching half of your eight attempts is irrelevant in the world of statistics, as we have to average over as many attempts as possible. You may have just caught some bad luck and it might average out absolutely correctly if you were to perform the craft 10,000 or a 100,000 times. If I flip a coin 8 times and get heads eight times it doesn't mean that the coin is flawed; the probability is still a 1/2 chance of getting a head, it isn't a 1/1 chance because I tried it 8 times and got heads 8 times!



And in the statistical world, that makes complete and utter absolutely unequivocal sense. But we aren't playing a stats simulator, we're playing a Lord of the Rings Role-Playing game, where it would feel good to have some faith in the mastery of the characters we have developed and spent hours into their skills. I will never get to test my skills 100,000 times, despite how it feels when I'm trying to level woodcrafting. I need the eight times I got to test my skills to matter, or else I'm going to wonder why I bothered leveling them at all. Statistical reality /= fun for the player.

I understand why it is the way it is; my disagreement doesn't come from confusion. It comes from an inherent disagreement that the level of randomization in our skill checks we are experiencing right now is not fun.
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Re: skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby mongwen » Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:17 pm

5 and 6. If the coding reports the craft as a familiar-level skillcheck and it isn't, then either the craft's skillcheck needs to change or the code does so that it accurately reports the skillcheck required. Just my two cents, but I don't think I understood you there. There are weaponcrafts that report their adroit requirement.

For the record, the two most recent failures were literally right after being properly fed and watered. Meanwhile I managed to get lucky and produce a mastercraft gambeson while hungry and thirsty. This randomness really is something...
A yellow-eyed, blotchy-fleshed brown uruk slowly slunks over, sneakily swaggering with a sleek step.
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Re: skillcheck failures -- argh!

Postby Brian » Thu Jan 29, 2015 5:07 pm

I think there's something to what you're saying ThinkTwice and I think that ability generally follows more of a smooth curve as well when it comes to people and learning. If I can produce a moderately good carved wooden spoon I think I'm pretty much going to produce about the same level of wooden spoon all the time rather than producing a masterful wooden spoon sometimes and a terrible wooden spoon sometimes. I'm not sure if the code reflects this well, however.
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